Third Bridge Intelligence

Third Bridge Intelligence tracks topline trends of up to 150 companies, in order to discover inflection points before anyone else.

We speak to thousands of retailers and distributors, continually monitoring what they observe in their respective industries. Their collective views on volume, pricing and relative market share allow us to identify company performance trends and market developments early on.

We are continuously distilling these insights into reports, which we publish as soon as we have an update. Our clients can then immediately use the information to develop investment theses and trading ideas.

FAQs for survey participants

Case studies

  • Objective

    Ongoing: Sales Trends and Sentiment in Chinese Spirits Sector

    In Oct/Nov 2012, in a bid to curb frivolous public spending, the Chinese government proposed a ban on luxury alcohol at military and state banquets and, more specifically, on the gifting of luxury spirits.

    Methodology

    We conduct telephone surveys of 30 distributors and retailers of the brand in China. These interviews are conducted on an ongoing basis, and the information collected provides aggregated insight into sales trends and market sentiment.

    Specifically, we ask about:

    Sales trends by brand and category (high-end, mid-range and economy spirits)
    The outlook for the next period
    The effect of recent developments in government policy
    Inventory levels
    Wholesale and retail price movement

    The Results

    This research enables Third Bridge to gather sales information from people with grassroots experience of the product, in order to provide investors with timely and aggregated data from brick-and-mortar stores about important and fast-changing factors such as pricing and inventory.

    Our findings offer investors a unique insight into what is driving the market and what retailers expect to happen over the coming months.

  • Objective

    Event-driven: Delayed Launch of New SUV in China

    On 13 January 2014, a leading Chinese car manufacturer announced that there would be a delay in the launch of its new SUV. This impacted dealerships which had the new model on pre-order for their customers.

    Methodology

    We conducted telephone interviews with people in 10 dealerships across the six cities in which the new SUV model was planned to be released.

    Specifically, we asked about:

    Effect on Q1 2014 sales
    Impact on other product launches
    Resulting perception of the brand
    Customer reactions to the announcement

    The Results

    Within 48 hours, we were able to report on dealer and customer reactions, and get an updated view as to dealers' revised sales expectations for the car manufacturer, both for the quarter and for the year ahead.

    Following the release of the initial report, we continued to regularly interview dealers as the release date of this model was delayed further throughout the course of the year.

  • Objective

    Event-driven: Black Friday

    Black Friday is regarded as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season in the US, and most major retailers open very early and offer promotional sales.

    Methodology

    At the beginning of December 2014, we conducted telephone surveys of 50 independent retailers in each category of jewellery, footwear, sportswear and consumer electronics to find out what they observed over the key Black Friday sales period and in the run up to the US Holiday season.

    Specifically, we asked about:


    Sales trends

    Best-selling products
    Inventory levels
    Customer traffic
    Sentiment/outlook for December sales

    The Results

    We were able to gather up-to-date sales information from people across the consumer/retail sector in the US, in order to provide investors with a snapshot of timely information intra-quarter within the key Q4 Holiday selling period.

  • Objective

    Ongoing: Russian Winter Tyres Retailers

    To gain insight into the Russian market for winter tyres and for a particular company's products; over 40 per cent of the group's total sales come from Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

    Methodology

    We conduct telephone surveys of 30 retailers of winter tyres in Russia to gain aggregated insight into sales trends and market sentiment. These surveys are conducted on an ongoing basis during the winter period, which is when the majority of winter tyres' sales occur.

    Specifically, we ask about:

    Order levels and market share dynamics
    Performance by brand/manufacturer
    What retailers expect in terms of order levels and sales by brand in the coming months
    Expected outlook for the business
    Inventory levels

    The Results

    By gathering information from many retailers with long-term, first-hand experience of the industry, we are able to present investors with valuable, on-the-ground opinions of both the future demand for winter tyres and which brands are maintaining strong market share positions.

  • Objective

    European and Asian Footwear Retailers Survey

    The company in question is a US designer, manufacturer and retailer of speciality footwear for men, women and children.

    The brand has enjoyed great success but has an uncertain future. It is associated strongly in the US with one specific product, which some see as a fad. More recently, the company has expanded and diversified into other types of footwear, in which there is much more competition.

    Although sales are lacklustre in the US, the brand is popular in other markets, especially the Asia-Pacific region. As such, Third Bridge initiated a survey to monitor sales trends and expectations for the company in the European and Asian regions.

    Methodology

    Once a quarter, Third Bridge anonymously surveys 120 independent footwear retailers who stock the company’s products in the UK, Germany, China and Japan. The aim is to provide aggregated insight on sales trends and market sentiment.

    Key areas of questioning include:

    market share dynamics
    performance by model and product line
    discounting and inventory levels for the quarter and the next six months
    success of the brand’s expansion into new products
    expectations for the brand’s future performance

    The Results

    Although this survey is still in its early stages, we are beginning to understand more about the way a brand can be perceived quite differently across regions of the world.

Meet the Intelligence senior team