Breaking the profitability deadlock and the evolution of embodied AI
In recent years, as penetration rates in tier-1 and tier-2 cities have continued to climb and hardware homogenisation has become increasingly apparent, the commercial service robot industry is gradually shifting from an early phase of rapid expansion into a new stage focused on efficiency and integrated capabilities. Against a backdrop of rising labour costs and hotels' push towards smart transformation, the profit margins of standalone delivery hardware are being squeezed. Manufacturers are broadly turning to diversified product lines, software-hardware integration, and emerging technology directions such as embodied AI in search of new growth drivers and commercial opportunities.
Drawing on in-depth interviews with multiple industry experts, Third Bridge has compiled the following key expert views and insights on the robotics sector:
1. Hotel delivery robot penetration and future growth potential
Third Bridge experts noted that whether in hotel restaurant food delivery or in-room item delivery scenarios, delivery robots have essentially become standard in chain hotels across tier-1 and tier-2 cities, with tier-3 city hotels also progressively upgrading and making purchases. Overall penetration is already at a high level.
Experts pointed out that item delivery is currently the scenario with the strongest genuine demand, as it takes on repetitive, standardised work, allowing hotels to directly quantify and calculate return on investment. Cleaning robots are also being gradually adopted by a growing number of hotels, while guidance and enquiry-type applications remain relatively limited but have seen real-world deployment. In addition, humanoid robots are beginning trial partnerships with select premium and high-star hotels. Experts mentioned that high-star hotels were initially hesitant about robots, but some international brands and domestic high-star hotels have now begun adoption.
On the demand side, experts believe the hotel industry is facing a fairly severe labour shortage, with gaps particularly pronounced in housekeeping and front-desk roles. Combined with continually rising wage costs, hotels have strong incentives to accelerate digital and smart transformation.
Regarding pricing, experts stated that price declines in recent years have been driven primarily by intensifying industry competition. Many manufacturers would like to raise prices, but price increases tend to result directly in lost orders, leaving them caught in a pricing dilemma. Experts believe that with hardware highly homogenised, manufacturers' room for differentiation lies mainly in software algorithms and services: first, software-level optimisation, including navigation efficiency and obstacle avoidance; second, service response speed — how efficiently after-sales teams coordinate with third-party local service teams, which experts regard as a key value point; and third, deep system integration, connecting with hotels' PMS and CRM systems to help hotels form a closed loop across software and hardware.
2. Commercial delivery robot gross margins and profitability models
Third Bridge experts stated that the commercial delivery robot market has entered a relatively mature stage. Channel prices for delivery robots currently sit at just over RMB 10,000, with end-customer prices at around RMB 20,000. Coverage and penetration in restaurant and hotel settings are both already high, making it one of the most widely deployed categories among commercial service robots.
Experts pointed out that with market adoption and fierce competition, product prices have continued to fall in recent years, and the industry's overall profitability still has room for improvement. At current price levels, profits from delivery robot hardware sales alone are fairly limited, and scaling up does not necessarily translate directly into improved profitability. Manufacturers are instead largely seeking to lift overall profitability by optimising their product mix.
Experts mentioned that some leading manufacturers have been actively expanding their product portfolios, including launching higher-value categories such as cleaning robots priced at RMB 50,000–80,000. Compared with delivery products, cleaning robots deliver better profitability, and product line diversification is becoming the main path for manufacturers to improve their profit structure.
On customer-side economics, experts estimated that users can recoup their investment in roughly six months — a very clear return on investment that enables customers to make decisions quickly.
3. Cost breakdown of RaaS and rental models
From a rental market perspective, Third Bridge experts pointed out that rent-instead-of-buy is not a new model in the service robot sector. Rental periods for greeting and delivery robot manufacturers were previously quite long, typically starting at one or two years, with equipment supporting the overall rental value in the form of services. Since the rise of humanoid robots, the market has seen a large volume of scattered short-term rental demand lasting just two to three days per booking, changing both rental formats and durations.
Experts mentioned that the hidden costs of the short-term rental model are not insignificant. On an average per-day basis, short-term rental prices are markedly higher than under the previous long-term rental model, because equipment transport and manpower deployment costs are rigid expenditures, with single-deployment costs ranging from roughly RMB 3,000 to 8,000.
4. The impact of embodied AI on scenario-specific robots and their evolution
Third Bridge experts expect that as embodied AI technology gradually matures over the next 2–3 years, or at most 3–5 years, humanoid-form products will pose a significant challenge to traditional service robots. However, experts believe this impact is more likely to manifest as an evolution in product form rather than a complete replacement of existing food delivery, item delivery, and cleaning robots — and the eventual form may not necessarily be human-like in appearance.
Experts mentioned that some hotel customers have already raised demand for multi-function capabilities, hoping for a robot chassis that can handle delivery while cleaning, equipped with dual arms and vision modules. When not performing delivery tasks, the robot could take on other work such as cleaning lobby table surfaces.
All insights in this article are based on information provided by Third Bridge experts.
For media enquiries, please contact: comms@thirdbridge.com
Transcript reference
1. 2025/12/04 Hotel Robotics Market 2026 Outlook & Yunji Technology’s Competency (Conducted in Mandarin)
2. 2025/12/04 China’s Service Robot Market – Sales Director at a Shanghai-based Robotics Firm (Conducted in Mandarin)
This analysis is also available in Chinese via Third Bridge's WeChat account.
