Disruption or distraction?
Stablecoins are widely seen as the biggest long-term threat to Visa and Mastercard. By allowing consumers, merchants, and enterprises to hold and settle digital dollars directly on-chain, stablecoins can bypass conventional rails such as SWIFT, ACH, and credit-card networks, reducing costs and speeding up settlement. That threatens fee-based revenue streams of card networks, including cross-border payments, acquiring, and deposit float.
The stablecoin market, which was around $275 billion in 2025, is expected to more than double over the next 2–3 years. Stablecoin penetration is expected to expand meaningfully through 2026, particularly in cross-border and B2B use cases, creating both competitive pressure and new service-layer monetisation opportunities for payment networks.While both card networks have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past decade, they have lagged in three-year cumulative performance as of 13 January, with Visa up 54%, Mastercard up 49%, and the S&P 500 up 75%.
Source: Artemis Analytics
Visa & Mastercard Lag S&P 500 Over 3 Years (as of 13 Jan)
Source: Stockanalysis.com
Third Bridge experts view this period as the first significant shift from stablecoins being a theoretical threat to becoming an operational reality in global payments. Visa expects that every institution moving money will ultimately need a stablecoin strategy. Adoption is forecast to be fastest in cross-border and high-value B2B flows — including corporate-treasury movements, supplier payments, and large international transfers — where stablecoins can materially cut costs and settlement times and deliver clearer benefits than in consumer retail.
The greatest risk to Visa and Mastercard, our experts say, is merchant-led adoption, as platforms such as Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify have strong incentives to route payments over lower-cost stablecoin rails and reshape checkout economics.
For those concerned that stablecoins could fully disintermediate card networks, conversations with our experts offer reassurance. Major card networks are not standing still; they are evolving. Stablecoins threaten the economics of the four-party model more than its infrastructure. They lack the consumer protection, fraud management, and trust layers that card rails provide. For now, that gap is exactly where Visa and Mastercard are anchoring their response.
As one expert noted on our July 2025 call on Visa’s cross-border outlook:
“There’s certainly the possibility of stablecoins being a meaningful threat and reducing Visa’s network volumes, particularly as it applies to cross-border, but I think that it’s really less of an impact than some folks would have you suggest. That threat becomes credible depending on how stablecoins are used. They’re trying to improve cost efficiency by bypassing many of the steps and intermediaries that are traditionally associated with card networks, including interchange and assessment fees.”
Visa – Cross-border Payments & Value-added Services Growth Outlook, July 2025
Here’s how the two networks are adapting:
Visa on the offensive: Monetizing every rail through value-added services
Visa is not standing still, it is integrating stablecoin settlement, tokenisation and risk/authentication tools into its network in an effort to remain the on-/off-ramp and service layer for these flows rather than be bypassed by them.
Our experts have told us that Visa’s forward-looking strategy centers on interoperability and value-added services (VAS). The company is moving beyond its roots as a card network toward becoming a multi-rail money-movement platform, supporting transactions across fiat, stablecoins, and real-time payment (RTP) systems. This “network-of-networks” model is designed not simply to defend Visa’s relevance, but to monetize connectivity itself, positioning the company as the trusted layer that enables secure value transfer across any rail.
At the heart of this strategy is Visa’s ability to layer its VAS stack onto third-party infrastructures. Examples include Visa Conecta, which runs atop Brazil’s Pix RTP system to deliver tokenization, fraud-scoring, and payment-initiation capabilities, and the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform (VTAP), which allows banks to issue and settle blockchain-based or stablecoin assets while retaining Visa’s established risk, compliance, and authentication frameworks. Our experts estimated that VAS revenue will continue to grow 20%+ annually, with consulting, fraud, and tokenization emerging as the largest contributors. They cautioned that deeper client penetration will require expanding beyond the top 200 global customers and improving pricing accessibility for smaller financial institutions.
Mastercard on the defensive: Leveraging data, analytics, and merchant relationships to stay Indispensable
Experts we talked to for Mastercard painted a more defensive picture. Mastercard’s defense hinges on its data and merchant relationships. The network is doubling down on tools like Test & Learn (APT) and advanced analytics to deliver value beyond payments, helping merchants optimize marketing, loyalty, and store performance. Experts see deep integration with the top 20-50 global merchants as critical, even if that means more bespoke economics.
Conclusion
Both networks see the same horizon: shrinking take-rates and growing competition from stablecoins, banks, and RTP systems. Their survival strategy is to own the layers above the rail: fraud, data, identity, interoperability, and consulting. Stablecoins may erode legacy transaction fees, but Visa and Mastercard are already reshaping themselves into the infrastructure that all other rails, including blockchain, must rely on.
In 2026, we will explore this further by interviewing relevant experts in areas where disruption could occur next, such as Stablecoin Cards, remittances, B2B payments, and other use cases.
All insights in this article are based on information shared by Third Bridge experts.
For media enquiries, please contact us at comms@thirdbridge.com.
Further reading: see relevant transcripts and key insights here.
Reference:
1. https://www.ccn.com/news/business/visa-expands-stablecoin-initiatives/
2. https://www.connectingthedotsinfin.tech/visa-starts-new-brazil-venture-to-enter-pix-market/
