Even before tariffs became a factor, marine shipping was poised for a volatile 2025.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced the formation of the Gemini Cooperation, a new partnership born out of the termination of the former 2M alliance between Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). The Red Sea route remained largely off limits, and fears of a demand slowdown not seen in years weighed on the outlook. Then President Trump’s “liberation day” arrived in April, and the risks of an all-out trade war soared, clouding the outlook for the industry even further.
We spoke with Third Bridge experts around the globe to understand their views on how ocean freight could evolve in H2 2025. Emerging from these conversations are several key themes that are poised to reshape the landscape for carriers, freight forwarders, and customers alike.
The evolving alliance landscape
Shipping alliances have long been a cornerstone of the industry, primarily driven by the need to reduce operational costs through economies of scale. By sharing vessels and assets, alliance members can optimize ship and port utilization, leading to improved fleet utilization and reduced costs per TEU. However, our experts have observed that the dynamics of these alliances are shifting.
The termination of the 2M alliance between Maersk and MSC, for instance, highlights a strategic divergence. According to experts, MSC benefited significantly from this alliance, leveraging it to become the world’s largest carrier by substantially increasing its fleet. MSC’s strategic shift to operate as a standalone entity, suggests that for a carrier of MSC’s size, operating independently allows for greater control and the ability to shift fleets to meet market demand across all trading lanes with experts indicating that greater control of cargo and supply chains may be key drivers.
In response to MSC’s growth and independent strategy, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd formed the Gemini Cooperation, which came into effect in February 2025. Their press release highlighted ambitions to deliver a best-in-class ocean network, enhancing resilience and stability and leveraging each other’s strengths in different regions, such as Hapag-Lloyd’s presence in South America and Maersk’s strength in Asian trading lanes. Experts anticipate that the Gemini Cooperation could achieve over 90% schedule reliability for its services within 2-3 years, improving customer experience and operational efficiency.
While alliances offer clear benefits in cost optimization and network reach, drawbacks exist. According to experts, a lack of cultural compatibility and challenges in maintaining differentiated approaches among partners can lead to bureaucracy and hinder quick decision-making. Furthermore, without collaboration some among our experts suggest carriers risk destroying each other due to intense competition, with market consolidation likely to be a growing theme.
The impact of tariffs and trade route disruptions
Tariffs imposed by the US are expected to significantly impact Asia-North America trade lanes in 2025. Experts suggest that higher tariffs on Asian countries could reshape global trade routes, leading to trade diversion and a rise in intra-Asia trade from countries like India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This shift could lead to increased pressure on existing infrastructure in major Indian Ocean ports, necessitating upgrades.
The potential reopening of the Red Sea route in 2025 is another critical factor. According to experts, this would offer significantly shorter transit times for Asia-Europe routes, reducing TEU miles and improving fuel efficiency, and potentially increasing service frequency. However, a full return to the vessel deployment frequencies prior to the Red Sea crisis is unlikely to happen immediately, with experts predicting a more phased approach due to ongoing geopolitical risks in the region.
Despite ongoing geopolitical and economic disruptions, there is growing optimism amongst experts that opportunities in emerging markets are helping to offset and even outweigh the risks tied to global instability. In their May earnings, Maersk maintained their full-year 2025 guidance of underlying EBIT to be between USD 0–3bn, with experts predicting this would likely land at USD 2 – 2.5bn, balancing emerging market opportunities against geopolitical and economic risks.
Freight forwarders like Kuehne + Nagel are also likely to be impacted by tariffs and trade disruptions. Experts note that Kuehne + Nagel’s customs clearance division operates as a separate business unit in some countries, particularly in the US and the commonly accepted fee-based model protects players from absorbing the duty amount themselves, as it is charged back to the customer. However, experts state that tariffs will lead to additional workload in adjusting systems and training staff, potentially increasing operational costs. More significantly, the continuous changes in tariffs could lead to errors and issues, and rectifying these with customs authorities is a lengthy and high-workload process.
In terms of adapting to trade disruptions, experts note that for freight forwarders, disruptions often lead to increased margins due to carriers raising rates. The key lesson learned from past disruptions like the 2021 global trade rebound and the Red Sea crisis is the need for tactical moves like shifting cargo to more reliable shipping lines and focusing on inventory management and shipper diversification.
Fleet investments and modernization
Conversations with our experts highlighted decarbonization as a significant investment area for carriers, with all major liner companies looking to reduce emissions and optimize their fleets. Experts cited ordering new, greener vessels and retrofitting existing ones to be more environmentally friendly and fuel-efficient as common tactics. For instance, Hapag-Lloyd’s new builds are dual-fuel engines capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, experts note that the future of marine fuel is still uncertain, with there no longer being a clear choice of fuel due to challenges in global fuel availability and technical readiness of engines. At the same time, green fuels are also significantly more expensive, with experts estimating these to be potentially 20-30% higher than heavy fuel.
Alongside the demand for the decarbonization of fleets, expansion also continues to be a theme. On fleet growth, MSC has significantly increased its fleet size, adding capacity equivalent to Hapag-Lloyd’s entire fleet according to experts, becoming the largest independent carrier since stepping out of alliances. In contrast, Hapag-Lloyd’s Pure Play Plus strategy, which was unveiled as part of their 2030 strategy, involves investing in terminals and inland transport, expanding beyond its traditional ocean liner business to compete with Maersk and MSC.
Assuming stable market conditions, Third Bridge experts expect the global TEU capacity to grow by 4-5% annually through 2027, commenting that this increased supply could put pressure on ocean freight rates, potentially driving them down unless significant disruptions occur, such as those seen in the Red Sea.
Conclusion
2025 has, so far, seen several headwinds that have made for choppy waters for maritime operators. Geopolitical risk, trade wars, and economic turbulence have forced alliances and strategic pivots, with mixed results for market players. With trade deals now being done, however, and emerging markets continuing to offer opportunities, our experts are hoping for calmer waters in H2.
