Due to COVID, timelines for eVTOL certification have long been sidetracked and in some cases halted, but recent progress from operators are signaling optimism. The likes of Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Beta Technologies, and Eve are targeting certified aircraft by late 2026, with Joby and Archer in the final stage of FAA testing. Many Third Bridge experts point to Q3 or Q4 2026 as the most likely deadline, but historical trends would suggest delays into 2027 are certainly plausible.
With certification nearing, it’s becoming increasingly important for players to iron out their GTM strategies. From the industry’s largest players, Joby, through their 2025 acquisition of Blade’s passenger segment business, have aimed to achieve more structured vertical integration and bolster their focus on the NYC commercial market. Archer, however, has seemingly opted for a slightly different approach through defense applications, with acquisitions of Mission Critical Composites and Overair. Both Blade and these defense partnerships should serve as meaningful revenue generators for Joby and Archer while they continue to complete certification. Despite slightly nuanced designs and GTM strategies for all these aircrafts, the certification pathways remain similar.
Challenges, Remaining Questions, and Future Roadmap
Third Bridge experts still highlight a couple of crucial hurdles for operators in the near and long term. With some production targets of 500-700 eVTOLs by FY 2027, demand for pilots is elevated in the near term. Training costs vary around ~30k per pilot at 2-3 months long, but can be upwards of $100k and 14-15 months. Furthermore, with ongoing shortages in the broader commercial aviation market, retention will also be a constant headwind. Lastly, pipeline for powered-lift pilots also comes from a small pool of B-22, F-35 and AV-8B Harrier aircrafts, further complicating availability.
Batteries, charging infrastructure, and improvements costs of the aircrafts remain larger, long-term challenges, with battery density only improving ~6% YoY and limited real estate for airport/vertiport expansion. Likewise, weight load factors will likely not improve due to inherent size limitations of the aircraft.
As current players are unlikely to generate meaningful revenue by 2027/2028 from deliveries, operators are searching for ways to generate cash. The previously mentioned acquisition of Blade’s passenger segment is one added benefit for Joby, but more likely revenue generation for the industry will hinge on international entry to service given the smaller regulatory barriers abroad. Our experts harp on some key partnerships including Delta, United, GE to remain critical for operators to lean on for support.
Moving forward, the industry continues to be pressured by investors for timely certification. While the regulatory environment has evolved to become more collaborative and proactive, it has become more stringent and critical as regulators become more mature with the technology; certification success hinges on execution, speed and safety. Third Bridge experts warn about potential “timeline optimism and certification fatigue” from investors as the next 12-18 months show aggressive production, certification, and cost targets, further emphasizing the importance of operational execution. Potential delays, stemming from other political or supply chain events, could push out timelines and systematically change which eVTOLs the US sees flying passengers in 2028 and beyond. So while there are significant risks to the adoption and timeline of these aircrafts, investors, OEMs and airlines are showing increasing confidence in the timeline, scalability and execution of eVTOL operators.
All insights in this article are based on information shared by Third Bridge experts.
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