Wrapping up 2025:  Crypto

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Coinbase – Payments, E-commerce & Base App Evolution

Key insights 

• Merchants are incentivised with cutting out Visa and Mastercard with lower fees and not handling chargebacks. Penetrating digital wallets such as Apple and Samsung Pay could help Coinbase with distribution. Specialist sees partnerships forming in two years, with also the threat of them building out a network themselves over using Coinbase
• Coinbase’s x402 is the layer to facilitate AI agent payments with stablecoins over HTTP. Challenges are around trusting AI with knowing the counterparties' credibility. Monetisation could come from charging developers to build on Coinbase Developer Platform, and specialist views it as the "AWS just for crypto rails"
• Tipping points for blockchain-based payments are UX and changing customer behaviour. Base is trying to replicate WeChat and WeChat Pay by being a social media platform and enabling payments by incentivising content creators
• High-margin USD 50m-60m in other transaction revenue is dependent on social media adoption. Base could monetise with advertisements and premium subscriptions for content

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Kraken – Penetrating Payments & Institutional Inroads

Key insights 

• Retail growth will outpace institutional but institutions will adopt faster. Expert thinks we're at the top of a crypto cycle and expects asset values to decline, leading to lower trading volumes for the end of 2025 and early 2026, but staking revenues should remain stable
• Kraken has been one step behind Coinbase in penetrating the institutional channel, but is catching up and is stronger in Europe. Expert thinks Kraken’s institutional revenues will grow double digits and management changes have allowed it to be more proactive and aggressive with acquisitions and innovations
• Expert thinks Kraken is behind with its L2 Ink. Total value locked on Ink is USD 7.5m and on Base is USD 4.5bn. Kraken can see growth because of its global licences, specifically west-to-east money and value transfers
• If Coinbase dropped its "trading revenues, entice everybody to trade on Coinbase and kill the competitors, they could probably do that"

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Tokenising Real-world Assets – How Does Blockchain Enhance Liquidity & Efficiency?

Key insights 

• Expert expects USD 2-3tn of money market funds to be tokenised by 2030. Private credit and collateralised loan obligations becoming tokenised are also positioned for growth, as this technology makes them easier to trade and can be used in borrowing and lending protocols. Real estate is the ideal product for tokenisation, but investors do not think their products are illiquid
• Tokenized stocks have large spreads and will take longer for adoption. Expert thinks Robinhood's tokenised stock product "will be a tremendous flop […] There's no value being created for investors" or the companies
• Fund administrators and custodians such as Apex and BNY are expected to acquire technology companies to gain more fees and offer tokenisation as a product
• CLARITY Act is expected to separate commodities and securities regulation, potentially allowing for legal versions of initial coin offerings, and covering DeFi, which tokens would be used in for yield

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