Wrapping up 2025:  Luxury

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China's Luxury Market – 2025 Growth Outlook & Consumer Behaviour Shifts From the Luxury Mall Perspective

Key insights 

• 2025 CNY trading outperformed 2024, with specialists expecting mid-to-high single-digit sales growth in Q1, citing a rebound from weak H2 2024 and signs of a stabilising "new norm"
• One big difference in the market between 2023-24 and 2024-25 into CNY was "the amount of discounting […] across the entire marketplace"
• Notably stronger performance in tier 1 cities compared to tier 2 and 3, "Beijing, for example, is a beneficiary of that because you have the whole northeast of China consolidating their spend"
• Consumer behaviour has fundamentally shifted with vastly greater access to information than a decade ago. However, "a lot of brands still operate with a very traditional logic towards the consumer"
• Tiffany leads in YoY growth ahead of Cartier and Bulgari, but the real growth in the jewellery market is being driven by Chinese gold retailers such as Laopu Gold and Chow Tai Fook

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Hermès vs Louis Vuitton – China Market Update & Growth Outlook (Conducted in Mandarin)

Key insights 

• Expert thinks the Sino-US tariff relief and stimulus policies cannot significantly boost luxury demand short-term, with high-end consumption remaining weak
• Younger Chinese consumers value emotional connection, leading to a decline in western brands’ appeal, while Made in China and domestic brands are gaining favour
• Accelerated consumer downgrading puts pressure on mid-to-high-end brands, while more affordable brands such as Ralph Lauren and Miu Miu are seeing counter-trend growth
• In Q1 2025, Louis Vuitton’s sales in China dropped 7% due to slower new customer acquisition and weak online performance. Hermès saw only a 2% decline, benefiting from less reliance on new customers and stable channels, though its March single-month decline reached 7%
• 2025-26 will be a crucial transition period, with brand performance increasingly polarised. LVMH has changed its CEO for the Chinese mainland to address challenges, with the effect yet to be seen. Hermès’ prudent strategy may demonstrate stronger resilience

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From Runway to Revenue – Can Luxury's Creative Reset Drive the Next Growth Cycle?

Key insights 

• Cautious post-fashion-month buying mood and budgets. Expert expects flat to low-single-digit H1 2026 growth, although polarised with some double-digit growers and many double-digit decliners
• Sub-EUR 10,000 hard luxury – especially gold – wins wallet share from EUR 5,000-plus handbags. Sub-EUR 1,500 shoes outperform. Ready-to-wear underperforms outside very important clients. Accessories growth concentrated at Bottega, Loro Piana and Hermès
• Buying budgets largely unchanged for Gucci, rising only 3-4%, Bottega and Balenciaga likely to receive high-single-to-low-double-digit increases and Dior could experience c5% sales lift within 3-4 months
• Expert notes LVMH improving to minus 5%, sprouting from Dior, Celine and Loewe. Kering's recovery remains constrained by Gucci and Saint Laurent bags
• Conversion and commercial proof expected December 2025 to Easter 2026, despite positive media momentum. Pre-spring small leather goods ship December 2025, because pre-spring season 2026 buys are locked and reorders hinge on early-2026 sell-through and footfall conversion

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